The Determinants of Fertility Change in Kenya: Impact of the Family Planning Program

David Ojakaa, Université de Montréal

In spite of a transition from natural towards controlled fertility over the last forty or so years in Kenya, a more accurate accounting of the impact of the country’s family planning program on fertility has yet to be undertaken. Using the 2003 Kenya DHS, this study quantifies the contribution of the introduction of the 1984 Kenya population policy and the program that followed. This is achieved by applying pooled cross-sectional and panel designs which control for unobserved factors that might influence the fertility outcome (whether a birth took place or not during the program years). An index of access to family planning services is also developed in order to comprehensively capture the measure’s multiple dimensions. The study makes suggestions on the most effective service delivery outlets and strategies.