Hispanic Fertility and the Future Population of the United States

Ward Kingkade, U.S. Census Bureau
David G Waddington, U.S. Census Bureau

Recent projections of the U.S. population produced by the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that the Hispanic share of the population will rise substantially. However, recent data from national surveys indicate that the fertility of foreign-born Hispanics in the U.S. population is around a full child higher than that of Hispanics born in the United States. The proposed analysis shall examine the impact of Hispanic fertility on the future growth and composition of the U.S. population through projections under alternative fertility assumptions. The constant Hispanic TFR scenario shall be contrasted with a scenario in which fertility declines by one child in a generation, and an intermediate scenario involving long-term convergence to the fertility of the remainder of the population. A final scenario, in which fertility drops immediately to replacement shall be used to show the increase in the Hispanic contingent of the U.S. population as a result of population momentum.