Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked?

John Bongaarts, Population Council
Thomas Buettner, United Nations
Gerhard Heilig, United Nations
François Pelletier, United Nations

This study first reviews the highly diverse regional and country patterns of HIV epidemics and discusses possible causes of the geographic variation in epidemic sizes. Past trends and projections of the epidemics are presented next and the peak years of epidemics are estimated. The potential future impact of new prevention technologies is briefly assessed. The study concludes with a summary of the future impact of the epidemic on key demographic variables. The main conclusion of this analysis is that the HIV epidemic reached a major turning point over the past decade. Incidence and prevalence rates have peaked in all world regions between the early 1990s and 2008. But in part due to the life-prolonging effect of ART and population growth, the absolute number of infected individuals is expected to remain high, thus posing a continuing challenge to public health programs.