Dilemma of Lagging Fertility Transition while Rising Contraceptive Prelavence in Rural Ethiopia: Multivariate Analysis of Socio-Economic, Cultural, Agro-Ecological And Health Service Factors

Charles H Teller, Population Reference Bureau (PRB)
Assefa Hailemariam, Addis Ababa University
Tesfayi Gebreselassie, Macro International Inc.

This paper analyzes factors effecting the lagging rural fertility transition, still at 6.0 TFR, in predominantly rural Ethiopia in the past 15 years, even where CPR has tripled. Our methodology includes the construction of trends from 1990 to 2005, supplemented by the national censuses of 1984 and 1994. A multilevel logistic regression model of socio-economic, demographic, cultural, environmental and health systems factors on trends in fertility and malnutrition are highlighted. Preliminary findings indicate that factors which reduce fertility, such as modern contraceptive use and age of marriage, are occurring around the country, effecting urban but not rural fertility . Logistic regressions on fertility show that most powerful determinants of rising CPR are maternal secondary education, young maternal age, higher wealth, exposure to media, and visits by family planning workers. Implications for policy goals in population, health and nutrition, as part of poverty reduction and food security strategies, will be discussed.