Spatial and Multinomial Analysis of Later-Life Migration into Florida

Andy Sharma, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

This paper briefly highlights Florida’s demographics from 1950 to present before examining retiree in-migration patterns from 1980-2005 using IPUMS. The analysis is conducted at two levels: (1) spatial analysis examining in-migration from all states, in-migration from just the top five states into the top ten MSAs, and detailed in-migration from each of the top five states into all MSAs for 2005 followed by (2) multinomial analysis examining in-migration with disability as the main independent variable. Results indicate patterns of migration have held steady for nearly two decades, but are slowly changing due to economic/housing constraints. Nevertheless, migration into Florida mostly occurs among Whites. Interestingly, all states show a distinct pattern and this lends evidence for Migration/Network Flows Theory. Please note: This work in progress also models migration into Florida using both a Multinomial (individual level) and Conditional Logit (both individual and state level) framework.