Fertility in Brazil between 1946 and 1960: An Application of the Own-Children Method

Ana P. Verona, University of Texas at Austin

This paper analyzes the timing of the onset of the fertility decline in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, using microregions as unity of analysis. The data came from the Brazilian demographic census of 1960. Based on the own-children method of fertility estimates and the Brass relational model of life tables, preliminary results show that the Total Fertility Rate in Porto Alegre (capital of Rio Grade do Sul) was already low in 1946, and that this rate did not change substantially between 1946 and 1960. These results challenge previous studies that assume that the first stage of the Brazilian fertility decline extends from the mid-1960s until 1980. The second step of this paper is to examine whether (and how) any pioneer microregions influenced other neighboring places during the timing of onset of the fertility decline in Brazil. In order to answer this question, the diffusion hypothesis will be taken into consideration.