Features Explaining Fertility Variations between Ethnic Societies in Zambia

Kambidima Wotela, University of Cape Town
Tom A. Moultrie, University of Cape Town

To assess ethnic fertility variations in Zambia, cluster analysis, multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis are applied to Zambian anthropological and demographic data. First, using 35 anthropological dimensions (as presented in the Murdock Atlas), cluster analysis is applied to nineteen Zambian societies to derive four Zambian traditional reproductive regimes. Results show that low fertility was associated with societies that had a weak control of reproduction at community level. This suggests that these societies controlled fertility at family level therefore supporting a crucial element of the intergenerational wealth-flows theory (family nucleation). Second, using census and DHS data, fertility trends (1981-2002) for the derived traditional reproductive regimes are computed. Results confirm existence and changing patterns of Zambian ethnic fertility differentials. Lastly, multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis are applied to identify present-day features underlying Zambian ethnic fertility differentials.