A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Fertility in Guatemala

Kathryn Grace, University of California, Santa Barbara
Stuart H. Sweeney, University of California, Santa Barbara
David Carr, University of California, Santa Barbara

This research investigates recent trends in the timing of childbearing, based on prior parity and age, across Guatemala. Characterized by an extremely high total fertility rate and lagging behind all other Central American countries in contraceptive use, Guatemala has only recently begun to show signs of a possible entrance into fertility decline. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 1987, 1995 and 1998-99 in combination with the National Maternal and Child Health Survey of 2002, parity progression ratios and tempo analyses of fertility rates will be developed. The primary objective of this project is to examine, using formal demography tools rarely applied to high fertility populations, age and parity specific fertility behavior in a country with fertility rates that exceed those of nearly all its neighbors. The results of the analysis will provide invaluable empirical evidence ultimately leading to an improved understanding of Guatemala and of the fertility transition.