Life Course Prospects From The Official Population Projections For Japan: The Longest Life With The Lowest Fertility

Ryuichi Kaneko, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

In this study, life course prospects of Japanese women are estimated from the official population projection by means of multistate life table method. First, I briefly discuss on the results and methods of new round of the Projections released in December, 2006. They provide various information on current situation and future development of vital events, i.e. marriage, birth and death, as assumptions, as well as a sketch of expected demographic changes over a next 50 years. Then I present and examine the estimated measures for the projected life of women derived from the multistate life tables of projected population. Average life time spent in never married status increases to 42.5 years (or 47% of the life expectancy) in cohort born in 1990 from 25.3 years (31%) in those born in 1950. Life time probability of childlessness and having no grandchild are 38.1% and 50.2% respectively in cohort born in 1990.