Future Vision of India: A Sub-National Level Population Projection

Puspita Datta, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Using various data sources like, Census, DLHS, etc., present paper attempts to project socio-economic and demographic situations in India during 2001-2020, considering two states - Uttar Pradesh (UP) in early demographic transition stage and Tamil Nadu (TN), a demographically advanced state. Results shows dependency ratio will decline much faster in UP compare to TN, while per capita GDP increase considerably in TN than that of UP. As secondary school-age population increases, more investments is required in UP for secondary-level education, aiming full-enrolment, while situation remain unchanged in TN. Compared to TN, proportion of population at high-health-risk will increase substantially by 2020 in UP. In UP more focus should also be given towards full and proper coverage of RCH services as the female population of reproductive age will increase. In 2020, to reduce state-level inequality in socio-economic development demographically backward state UP will continue drawing attention of policy makers.