Subjective Expectations about Mortality in the Context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi

Adeline Delavande, RAND and Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Hans-Peter Kohler, University of Pennsylvania

Measuring and analyzing expectations about mortality levels and risks is essential for understanding health behaviors. This is particularly the case in sub-Saharan contexts with high HIV prevalence where mortality levels have changes substantially in the recent decade, and individuals are confronted with re-evaluating many behaviors that may affect their HIV infection risks and subsequent mortality. Using a newly-developed interactive elicitation methodology implemented in rural Malawi, our analyses show that respondents substantially over-estimate the mortality risks compared to life table mortality rates; but they seem to be aware of important mortality differences by socioeconomic groups or own HIV status. Our analyses also show that respondents are clearly aware of the effect of HIV on survival, and the effect or ART in reducing the consequences of HIV infection on mortality levels.