A Revised Parity Progression Model and its Application

Zhigang Guo, Peking University
Erli Zhang, China Population Information and Research Center (CPIRC)
Yong Cai, University of Utah

The paper proposes a revised version of parity progression projection model and applies it to estimate the demographic effects of suggested policy change in Jiangsu Province, China. As an extension of the cohort component method, parity progression model formulates fertility schedule in terms of parity progression ratios, as opposed to the conventionally used period age specific fertility. The birth planning policy in China is a perfect example for such an application as the policy is parity dependent. We propose a revised parity progression model based on the age pattern of birth progression. Using empirical data from Jiangsu Province, we project the potential effects of the proposed policy change that unifies the policies across rural and urban areas. Our projections demonstrate that parity progression model is a useful tool in population projection to accommodate specific local conditions and that the proposed policy change in Jiangsu will have only limited effects on population growth.