Paths to Low Mortality: Relationship between Mortality Level, Age Pattern of Deaths and Cause-of-Death Pattern

Danzhen You, Harvard University

In this paper, I examine the relationship between mortality level, age pattern and disease pattern during mortality transition by comparing provincial data of the 1990s in China. The analyses show that there is no necessary connection between mortality level, age pattern of deaths and cause-of-death pattern. Populations with similar mortality levels and/or age patterns may have quite distinct cause-of-death patterns, and populations with different mortality levels and/or age patterns may display similar disease patterns. The comparisons between Chinese provinces suggest that populations may not follow similar changes in their cause-of-death patterns to reach low mortality, and there may be more than one path to low mortality in connecting to cause-of-death change.