Demographic Housing Demand: Estimates by Household Sizes

Gustavo H. Givisiez, Universidade Cândido Mendes
Elzira L. Oliveira, Universidade Cândido Mendes

Housing demand projections for the future has only been recently introduced in the Brazilian literature, despite being a common subject in international literature. This article’s objective is to present the housing demand projection distinguished by household size, sex and age. In order to comprise the latest changes, the historical changing of the headship function were modeled by APC model. The use of an eminently demographic methodology, when projecting household formation trends, is justified by the assumption that it is a phenomenon related to its individual life cycle. One can talk of a demographic dividend or window of opportunity in education associated with the declining share of the school aged population. The most obvious prediction of housing demand associated with changes in the population age structure after the demographic transition is the increasing housing demand associated with the aging process, observed when the headship rate increases with age.