The Impact of Demographic Dynamics on Natural Resources. A Discussion within the Framework of Input-Output Models

Emilio Zagheni, University of California, Berkeley

The paper is an attempt to discuss the role of demographic dynamics on natural resources and environmental disruption within the framework of economic input-output models. In the first part of the paper, we discuss an approach based on input-output models and we present it as a generalization of the IPAT equation. We then develop an analysis of the impact of changes in mortality and fertility levels on natural resource requirements, within the context of the stable population theory and a standard model of economic growth. In the second part of the paper, we develop a methodology to estimate consumption profiles by age, given data on household consumption. We then make use of the estimated consumption profiles by age, for the United States, to get some insights on the effect of demographic dynamics, such as aging, on energy requirements and emissions of greenhouse gases.